As NATO leaders prepare to endorse an ambitious five percent of GDP defense spending target, several key allies including Belgium, Canada, France, and Italy are facing tough financial decisions. With Spain having already secured an exclusion, and President Donald Trump pushing for the US to be exempt, the pressure is mounting on these nations to significantly hike their security spending, potentially by billions of dollars.
The proposed five percent target is bifurcated: 3.5 percent for pure defense spending, a substantial increase from the current two percent minimum, and an additional 1.5 percent for critical infrastructure improvements, cyber defense, and societal preparedness. For these nations, many of whom already struggle to meet the existing two percent target, the 3.5 percent core defense spending will be a formidable challenge.
Spain’s Prime Minister, Pedro Sánchez, confirmed his country’s exemption, indicating that the final NATO communique would no longer mandate the target for “all allies.” This precedent could make it easier for other financially constrained members to seek similar waivers. Trump’s persistent calls for allies to increase their contributions, including his branding of Canada as a “low payer,” further underscore the internal pressures surrounding equitable burden-sharing.
The driving force behind this intensified focus on defense spending is the shared concern among European leaders about Russia’s aggressive actions in Ukraine and its broader implications for regional security. NATO experts have indicated that robust defense against a potential Russian attack requires investments of at least three percent of GDP. While a 2032 deadline has been floated for achieving the five percent target, the feasibility and enforcement of this timeline remain subjects of ongoing negotiation.