Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli’s resignation may have felt like a political earthquake, but it is likely just the mainshock. A series of political aftershocks are expected to continue shaking Nepal as the youth-led protest movement, unsatisfied with this single concession, continues to press its demands for a fundamental restructuring of the state.
The immediate aftershock will be the political maneuvering to form a new government. This process is likely to be messy and contentious, and any outcome that doesn’t meet the protesters’ approval could trigger renewed demonstrations. The political elite are on unstable ground, and any move they make could cause further collapse.
A larger and more prolonged aftershock will be the sustained pressure from the protest movement itself. Having tasted victory, the demonstrators are unlikely to demobilize. They will continue to act as a powerful, extra-parliamentary force, scrutinizing the actions of any new government and holding them to their demands for an end to corruption and nepotism.
The ultimate aftershock could be a permanent change in Nepal’s political culture. The crisis has empowered a new generation of activists and has shattered the aura of invincibility around the political class. The long-term tremor could be a shift towards greater public accountability and a political landscape where the voice of the street can no longer be ignored.